Thursday, September 22, 2011

26/11 versus Samjhauta: One does not justify other

26/11 versus Samjhauta: One does not justify other
16 Jan 2011
The Asian Age

By Ajit Doval
The killing of Salman Taseer, Governor of Punjab in Pakistan, is not unique but highly significant. Important public figures have been assassinated, both in Pakistan and outside, in the past and their voices silenced. The event — more importantly its aftermath — is however, important for making glaringly visible the trajectory of Pakistan that could have far reaching implications for regional and global security.
The muted response of frightened political leaders, the clergy’s refusal to perform his last rites, people honouring the assassin as a national hero and security agencies looking the other way to suggestions of sanitising their own house by purging undesirables are indicative of the dangerous precipice where Pakistan is standing today and the uncertain future it is heading for.
It points to the emergence of a nuclearised state heading for anarchy where government is fast losing control, civil society is partly seized and partly stunned to silence by violent armed groups, there is absence of any ideological or political thought-stream to counter Islamic radicalism and political parties are lacking both the will and the organisation to stand up to the Islamists. More sinister, the army which is in the driving seat, increasingly appears to be lacking both the capacity and intent to counter the jehadis — selectively calibrating their response on the basis of their targets, region, affiliations and agenda of terrorist groups.
Pakistan for long has been a source of serious security concern for India but what is discernible now is qualitatively different and much more dreadful. Pakistan, in India's security calculus has presented three sets of threats,. The first emanated from Pakistan's military posturing, exacerbated by army occupying a lead role in managing affairs of the state, particularly when they relate to India. Their compulsive hostility led to four military engagements, the last being their intrusion in Kargil. Aggressive posturing also manifested in Pakistan weaponising itself beyond its legitimate security needs, its pursuing India-specific nuclear and missile programmes, its heavy defence acquisitions on the pretext of fighting terrorism.
The second set of anti-India actions can be grouped as strategico-political initiatives. Starting from their joining military alliances like CENTO and Baghdad pact in the 50s it includes their recent mechanisations to exclude India from Afghanistan, becoming a willing proxy of China aimed at strategic encirclement of India.
The third set of threats pertained to its use of covert action against the asymmetric adversary that it could not take on militarily. These covert actions included sponsoring and supporting terrorism, insurgencies, acts of sabotage and subversion. The intelligence offensive in Kashmir and violence perpetrated in different parts of the country to bleed India were part of this grand strategy. For their covert actions in India and Afghanistan, they extensively used multiple radical Islamic groups that have now started threatening the very existence of Pakistan; a collateral cost that Pakistan’s strategists failed to factor in.
Pakistan is now faced with a situation where its civil society is crumbling and wilting under pressure of armed groups of various hues.
Numerical majority of religious moderates is irrelevant in this game whose outcome will now be determined by power of the guns and their unpredictable directions. The army, which is in the driving seat, suffers from three major infirmities. Firstly, it is still playing a duplicitous game vis-a-vis jehadis - fighting a few and appeasing the rest; calibrated selectivism is keeping jehadi culture alive, providing it legitimacy, respectability and new converts. The second problem is the fast eroding will within the Army to take on the jehadis.
On the political front, no political party has either the will or the capacity to mobilise the public to take on the radicals, their drawing-room denunciations notwithstanding. Political, sectarian and religious conflicts, compounded by serious economic crisis, are taking Pakistan to an uncertain future, possibly a civil war. The nation while faced with multiple conflicts — like battle lines drawn between moderates and Islamic hardliners; ethnic unrest among Pashtuns, Sindhis, Mohajirs, Baluch, Saraikis, etc; conflict between Deobandi and Barelvis; violence between Shias and Sunnis, etc, is still obsessed with India. It is still infiltrating terrorists in Kashmir, keeping the terrorist infrastructure intact and reluctant to take action against perpetrators of Mumbai attacks.
There is, however, a subtle shift. In the past people calling the shots though strongly anti-India belonged to elite middle class and not Islamic fanatics. They used Islam and the jehadis as expendable commodities to subserve their purpose, keeping full strategic and tactical control over their organisations, resources, leaders and operations. This phenomenon now appears to be reversed. Slowly but surely the radicals are acquiring the critical mass to dictate the terms and forcing the State to carry out its diktats. If the Islamists want government of Pakistan to refrain from taking any action against perpetrators of 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the government feels compelled to comply.
If Lashkar-e-Tayyaba wants the Pakistan government to defend Hafiz Sayeed in a US court the government of Pakistan finds it difficult to ignore. The strings of power, directly or through their proxies,
slipping into the hands of Islamic radicals in this nuclear state is now the real danger. The killing of Salman Taseer is indicative of this change.
(The author is a former IB chief and director, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi)

Recent Developments in Nepal: The Way Forward

Seminar on
Recent Developments in Nepal: The Way Forward

(January 6, 2011)

Inaugural Session
Welcome Speech by Director Mr. Ajit Doval
Honourable Deputy Prime Minister of Nepal, Your Excellency, the Ambassador of Nepal to India, Shri C.D. Sahay, dignitaries, distinguished scholars, ladies and gentleman; it is indeed my great pleasure to welcome you all to Vivekananda International Foundation. This non-partisan and independent Foundation, aims at studying, analyzing and researching events and issues that have a bearing on India’s national interests, the interests of our neighbourhood, global peace and harmony. The Foundation particularly focuses on issues of strategic and security interests, foreign policy issues and matters pertaining to economy, governance and civilisational studies. We are so grateful that all of you have been able to spare your very valuable time and have come here despite your busy commitments.
We are delighted that we are starting the New Year with this dialogue on Nepal and I take this opportunity to wish all of you a very happy and successful 2011. I hope that the New Year brings greater prosperity and happiness to the people of the two countries and promotes better understanding and cooperation between them. Starting the New Year with a discourse on Nepal is probably the most rightful thing to happen. We enjoy a very special mutual relationship – a relationship built on strong fundamentals whose constants are something that have remained and are going to remain with us irrespective of ups and downs of politics and short term perceptional variations. In this very unique relationship, we cannot overlook or overstate realities of our geographical proximity, civilisational and historical links, close people to people contacts and our intertwined interests of security and stability.
We are aware that Nepal in its process of political evolution, is undergoing a period of momentous change and transformation and we earnestly hope that a great future is in the offing for her. The process of change can, at times, be ridden with uncertainty and in any major and fundamental process of change there are bound to be twists and turns, problems and challenges galore, but given the will and determination they are not insurmountable. I have no doubt that at the end of the tunnel there is a mighty light of hope, stability and progress awaiting the people of Nepal. But, there is one point, however, that I would like to underline. It is a point that transcends governments and events that tend to blur our vision and obfuscate issues – it is the reality of huge goodwill of the people of India and its civil society for the people of Nepal and vice versa that provides a solid bedrock to our unique relationship which has perhaps few parallels in the world. We can build on this strength to help each other, particularly in trying times like the present ones.
I would like to underline that in these difficult times, the need for this people-to-people relationship assumes special significance. It is important therefore that thinkers, intellectuals and opinion builders converge and try to discover or evolve ways and means by which the problems could be better comprehended and analysed and result in their communicating to the civil society views and perceptions that are informed, well analysed and done with a greater sense of objectivity and responsibility. In Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) we highly value this necessity of an informed dialogue to help resolve contentious issues. Probably, the people of India feel as much troubled as the people of Nepal if situations and events do not develop the way they ought to, lose their envisaged trajectories or lead to sufferings and hardships to common people. And I do feel that the common man in Nepal also feels the same way about India. Such an empathetic relationship imposes a certain responsibility on the intellectuals, opinion makers and thought leaders on both sides of our borders. Such a sense of responsibility gives rise to the question, what can we really do to contribute towards resolving the problems, ending uncertainties and strengthening the forces of peace and stability. The VIF initiative to hold this seminar stems from this sentiment. It is premised on the assumption that ultimately the resilience of the civil society, civilisational values and will and determination of its people dictate the traction of any nation’s future, and Nepal is inherently strong on these basics.
The last few years have been seeing history in the making in Nepal and the landmark was reached in May 2008 when it became a republic. But it is not only Nepal becoming a republic that was important, that was indeed a historic watershed, but there was something much more significant and they were the offshoots of that epochal event. Firstly, it ignited the hopes and aspirations of all sections of the people who felt that a new Nepal in the offing promised a great future for them and their progeny. The second important factor was that it created the building blocks for the reconstruction of Nepal. These cardinal building blocks were conflict resolution through dialogue, harmonizing diverse views and interests and promoting understanding. It was, in essence, the acceptance of democracy and political pluralism as the guiding principles of the new Nepal. The third was a unanimous faith in constitutionalism as the basis on which it decided to traverse it journey ahead.
It is unfortunate that today some of the hopes and expectations have been belied. The euphoria has subsided and has started showing signs of despair. The cause of concern is not that some of the deadlines have not been met; they are not consequential by themselves but rather what is consequential is something much more important and subtle and it is that the building blocks on which the future was to rest have been lost somewhere on the way. The faith and trust in them have started getting eroded. The intensions and integrity of the actors who brought about the change have started being questioned. The spirit of common purpose is probably not as intense now as it was earlier. The challenge before Nepal and all those who wish it well is how best to reverse the trend.
Where does the future lie? The future lies in rediscovering these lost building blocks. Placing them back on track and providing the process with the traction with which it had initially begun. If we can find the right answers to the causes of derailment and how to rectify them we would have solved half the problem. The goal will always remain elusive in case we, either by default or design, advance and believe in wrong causes or extend spurious excuses for narrow political gains. The danger of seeing the problem where it does not exist and of ignoring where it really does compounds the vulnerability manifold. The ghost of external conspiracy for internal failings may be both a shortsighted strategy and bad tactics.
We in the Foundation very strongly believe that all solutions to Nepal’s present day problems lie within Nepal – with its people, its leadership, its political parties and its intellectuals. People in India, thinkers, intellectuals as well the common man strongly feel that Nepal must get out of the existing morass as fast as it can and the capacity to do this rests only with people of Nepal. India as a friend can at best facilitate the process.
In this seminar we are only trying to provide a platform where all shades of opinion holders in Nepal can interact freely and candidly and have a better appreciation of each other’s view points. Sharing of their perceptions by Indian scholars may highlight some new aspects enriching the discourse. The holistic broad spectrum awareness may help appreciate each other’s point of view better facilitating the process of conflict identification and resolution. During the deliberations here, can we move a step forward in identifying the real problems and the bottle necks, evaluate the grave costs and consequences of continued instability and understand implications for Nepal of failure of democracy and absence of constitutionalism? If we do we will consider this seminar a success.
I once again welcome all of you to discuss these issues confronting Nepal. We have gathered here some of the best brains and informed people about Nepal - people with great experience and best of intentions. We do hope that after two days of interactions and exchange of ideas, we should be able to find the ways and means by which the stalled political process could gain a new lease and direction. I would like to reiterate that the people of India have a tremendous amount of goodwill for Nepal and are ever eager to hear any good news emanating from there.
I express my profound gratitude to all of you once again and particularly to the honourable Deputy Prime Minister who, despite her extremely busy engagements, has agreed to grace the occasion and participate in the seminar. With these words, I request her to deliver the inaugural address.

India’s Plundered Money Abroad – Can we get it back?

Sent to Mr. RNP Singh on 21 Feb. 2011 for publishing in Eternal India

21 Feb. 2011

India’s Plundered Money Abroad – Can we get it back?

Ajit Doval, KC

In common parlance, all the money generated through illegality – ranging from heinous criminal activities to white collar tax avoidance and tax evasions is nomenclatured as ‘Black Money’. The basic problems that India faces are twofold. Firstly, a continuing rise in the share of black money that has acquired alarming proportions and secondly a substantial portion of it getting stashed in tax havens abroad. What compounds the problem is the fact that the state is seen as lacking both the capacity and the intention to reform the system or deter the wrong doers. A nexus between the black money and those exercising power is suspected by the people, weakening the national will and raising the level of public cynicism. Contrary to expectations, liberalization and economic growth, rather than abating, has multiplied the phenomenon manifold. Ironically, during the last five years, when the country witnessed a high economic growth, had an economist Prime Minister donning the mantle of ‘Mr. Clean’ and global environment was relatively conducive to track the dirty money, growth of black money and its illegal movement abroad has been the highest. The Global Financial Integrity (GFI) has estimated that more than two-third of the Indian money stashed abroad has been generated in post liberalization period after mid nineties. The Supreme Court of India observed it to be not just tax evasion but “Theft” and “Plunder” of Indian money.

Size of the Problem:

The first estimate of black money in the country was made in 1955-56 by Prof. Calder of Britain. He calculated it to be around Rupees 440 to 500 crore, 4% of the then GDP. Over the years, the share of this black money kept on increasing and by mid nineties touched nearly 40%. Today, it is estimated to be to the tune of 50% of the GDP. Prof. Arun Kumar of JNU has observed that, “Today, policy failure is writ large and governance is failing all around. This is due to the growth in size of the black economy from about 4 percent of GDP in 1955-56 to the present 50 percent… For illegality to flourish on such a vast scale, those involved in overseeing the functioning of society have to be systematically complicit.”
The Global financial Integrity GFI, a highly credible non-profit research organization, working in the area of Tax Havens has estimated that the present value of illegal Indian money held abroad is to the tune of $500 Billions. Most analysts estimate it to be a gross under estimation for want of adequate research. In money terms, it means 15 years of our defence budget and eight times of our plan budget at 2009-10 level.
What is a matter of greater concern is that the black money continues to grow at a staggering rate and so does the movement of money to tax havens abroad. Generation of black money in such large volume, besides lack of probity and integrity in public life, is a consequence of faulty policies, inadequate laws, institutional decay and lack of transparency in governance. Almost every economic activity in the country from sale of agricultural produce by farmers to procurement of defence equipments, is plagued with bribery, speed money, corruption or kick backs. The malice, which is both systemic and systematic, not only affects the government and the public sector but also the private sector.

How does it hurt?
Black money not only leads to economic deprivation and degeneration of a country but seriously undermines the authority of the government and the rule of law. Black money in India has tended to corrupt democratic polity of the nation as large amounts of it get siphoned to political parties and personalities for electioneering and personal favours. The money power in elections is one of the banes of Indian democracy and its containment is necessary for the growth of a healthy democracy. Control of unaccounted money that sustains terrorism, insurgencies, drug trafficking, organized crimes etc. will also go a long way in Internal Security management of the country.
The drain of scarce national resources to foreign coffers bleeds the country in diverse ways and erodes its Comprehensive National Power (CNP). In a country where more than 30 crore people live below the poverty line, it deprives the country of resources required for upliftment of their survival status. Most of the neglected areas of national growth like health, education, roads and communications, tribal welfare, housing etc., could be addressed by utilization of these funds. A large number of internal conflicts like Left Wing Extremism originating due to economic deprivation and non inclusive growth could be effectively dealt with. The country’s defence preparedness that has been hamstrung for want of adequate resources could be brought to the level where it could cope with emerging military challenges from our two nuclear neighbors.
India’s economic strength today is one of the major contributor to its Comprehensive National Power that has catapulted India into a new power orbit. If the huge amounts of Indian money stashed abroad could be ploughed back and their future out flows prevented, it will greatly enhance our national power. India would also be able to take advantage of having world’s biggest youth bulge by providing them gainful employment, totally revolutionizing the country and its economy. However, the failure to do so can turn it into a liability and a source of serious internal turmoil.

How is it generated?
Indian black money that find its way to tax havens abroad originates in diverse forms; following being the major contributors:
(a) One of the major sources is huge amounts of money paid as bribes to corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and middlemen in major deals and projects. The cuts and kick backs are hidden in the project costs of these mega deals or procurement orders. Through various dubious ways they are channelised to accounts of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats or their proxies. Favours in Defence deals, licenses and permissions for mega projects, grant of infrastructure contracts, amending or formulating rules and procedures that provide undue benefit to a particular company etc. are the considerations for payment. As most of these big companies or their subsidiaries maintain foreign accounts the movement of money goes undetected. It is estimated that nearly 60 per cent of the illegal money stashed abroad comes from this source.
(b) Business malpractices through which black money is created include evasion or taxes, under and over invoicing, violation of provisions of Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) etc. While major portion of this black money stays within the country and is used for acquisition of properties at under valued prices, hoardings of gold and silver, various forms of wasteful expenditures etc, a portion of it is channelised out of the country through hawala or other illegal transactions. After reaching foreign destinations it is moved to banks and tax havens which assure total secrecy. Nearly 15 – 20 % of the money stashed abroad originates from these sources and mostly belongs to business men and companies existing only in paper.
(c) Another source of black money pertains to organized crime mafias who engage in large scale property deals, drug trafficking, gunrunning, human trafficking, terrorist related activities etc. Nearly 10% to 12% of the illegal money stashed abroad is through these sources.
(d) Other miscellaneous sources include the money earned by Indian nationals abroad but parked in tax havens to avoid heavy taxes in the West. A section of affluent Indians moving parts of their savings to foreign banks for security also at times prefer tax free destinations. All these miscellaneous sources account for nearly 8 to 9%.
In the recent issue of India Today [31-01-2011] it was mentioned that "Sometimes, the money is physically transferred abroad. The CEO of a Mumbai-based equity firm says that the money is flown abroad in "special flights" or chartered aircraft out of Mumbai and Delhi airports to Zurich. Perhaps this is one reason behind the demand for private planes." This reveals the gigantic dimension of the problem.

Scams and black money:
Scams are intricately intertwined with creation of black money as also illegal stashing of Indian money abroad. Scams in government are characterized by large volumes of money and important functionaries of the government being involved. According to a study made by Prof. Arun Kumar, a noted authority on black money, “While the 1980s saw eight major scams, in the period between 1991 and 1996 there were 26 and during 2005-08, there were around 150 scams.” The graph is co-terminus with increase in the volume of black money and the Indian money stashed abroad.
During the regime of Rajiv Gandhi, Bofors erupted as a major scam involving purchase of artillery guns for the Indian Army. The scam was valued at rupees 64 crores. This paled into insignificance when compared to Harshad Mehta scam during Narsimha Rao’s Prime Ministership in 1992. According to Janakiraman Committee report the loss suffered by the state was to the tune of rupees 3,000 crore; which most experts estimate to be a gross undervaluation. When Harshad Mehta was manipulating the market in 1990s and the matter witnessed a heated debate in the parliament, the then Finance Minister, said he would not lose sleep over it. He probably felt that it was a temporary and an affordable aberration of the liberalization process which over the period of time will eliminate itself. History, however, was to prove him wrong and hit the country with vehemence under his Prime Minister ship. During the decade of 90s more than 2,500 companies that got registered in the stock market disappeared in the thin air with public money. The loss suffered by people was estimated to be several thousand crores but the government could do nothing to prevent it or punish the guilty. This not only emboldened the unscrupulous businessmen but also led to emergence of an unholy nexus between the political class and others in positions of authority and these financial criminals. This nexus took diverse forms from outright bribery to political funding and ‘taking care of the comforts’. The major scams of the recent years include the Satyam scam of 2009 involving nearly 8,000 crores, the mining scams running into thousands of crores, the Madhu Koda scam of 2008 estimated to involve nearly 4,000 crores, Common Wealth Games, Aadarsh Society scam, the Deemed Universities imbroglio etc., to name a few in the long list.
The 2G spectrum scam of 2008, however, came as the greatest shocker to the country. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India estimated the loss to the tune rupees 1,76,000 crore. It is not only the astronomical figure but also the blatant manner in which it was done that shocked the nation. The fact that the Prime Minister during a press conference on February 16, 2011, tried to explain away the phenomenon as compulsion of coalition politics is illustrative of the level of degeneration in governance and raises some serious questions about the viability of the political system itself.
One of the major areas of concern in recent years has been serious erosion in the credibility of investigating agencies and their political misuse. Appointment of a Chief Vigilance Commissioner despite being an accused in a criminal case, handling of corruption cases by CBI against Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh etc. turning the heat on and off to meet political requirements, Additional Solicitor General becoming an instrument to get the funds of Quattrochi released from his London bank account are illustrative of the serious morass the country finds itself in.

What could be done?
To get back the money stashed abroad is a painstaking and time consuming task. The nation will have to design a well thought out multi-pronged strategy ranging from enacting appropriate laws, empowering its investigative and intelligence agencies, using political and diplomatic pressures and leveraging its new economic clout to achieve its goals. Most importantly, a political
consensus and national will have to be created to achieve this national objective. The government of India can consider following measures:

a) Taking cognizance of reports of the IMF, GFI etc, the Government of India should enact a law emphasizing that huge Indian capital has been illegally stashed away and needs to be ploughed back. It should be a penal law so that all the defaulters could be treated as criminals. On the strength of this law the government should declare itself as the sole owner and beneficiary of all Indian monies, assets and bank accounts held abroad by or the dependants of Indian nationals without due declarations to the Indian authorities. The law may provide that where the Indian national are able to prove that the assets held by them have been acquired through proper means and the non-declaration was merely a technical default, the government should restore the assets back to the claimant. It, however, should shift the onus of proof on the person who holds undeclared wealth abroad. On the strength of the said law, the Government of India can ask the world governments and the foreign banks, like the Swiss Banks, to recognize Indian government as the beneficiary of the undeclared wealth and freeze the accounts till owners of the wealth are able to prove that they had acquired it by fair means and from legally valid sources.
b) On the basis of various expert reports and other credible information available, there are reasonable grounds to infer that a substantial portion of Indian illegal money stashed in foreign banks owes its origin to criminal activities like corruption, misappropriation of government funds, fraud, cheating, activities of organized criminal gangs, drug mafias, terrorist financing, ransoms etc. All these are cognizable offences punishable under criminal laws of India including the Indian Penal Code, Prevention of Corruption Act, The Conservation of Foreign Exchange and Prevention of Smuggling Activities Act, Foreign Exchange Management Act, The Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, Money Laundering Act, The Smugglers and Foreign Exchange Manipulators Forfeiture of Property Act etc.
Government of India should suo moto register an omnibus criminal case against suspected unidentified persons who have been indulging in criminal activities and unauthorizedly transferring the money to tax havens abroad. The case may be transferred to a special team of the CBI and investigated under supervision of the Supreme Court. They must register the FIR under varios sections of the IPC, money laundering and anti-terror laws etc. Registration of the criminal case will enable the investigating agencies to summon people for questioning, interrogate suspected persons, seize incriminating documents, conduct raids, make arrests, examine documents etc.
This would also enable the Government to get assistance of foreign police and investigating agencies for gathering requisite evidence and information. Most importantly, this will empower the government to approach different banks abroad, as also the concerned governments, for information regarding the money trail as they pertain to criminal cases.
c) Lots of monies of Indians in secret bank accounts have been appropriated by the banks, as the account holders cannot by legal and open documentation bequeath them to their progenies and most of them die without informing their progeny about the account. This may run into billions from the 1950s. Such monies should be declared by a special law as and vested in government of India with a provision that the progenies of the account holder may claim the same by providing requisite evidence to show that the monies in such accounts were sourced in legal business.
d) Indian political system needs to recognize that India is already a leading economy and an emerging geo-political power. In the shifting economic centers of gravity in the new world order, countries, particularly the tiny tots like Switzerland, will have enormous stakes in our country. The present and potential power of India should be leveraged, like US and Germany, did to reclaim the black monies of its nationals stashed abroad. Switzerland has billions of dollars of investments in India that they would not like to jeopardize by ignoring our laws or undermining our bonafide national interests. If our geo-political power was properly exercised, the Swiss government could never have behaved the way it did in Hasan Ali case.
e) Every electoral candidate should file an affidavit before elections that he does not hold illegal money abroad. The same should be applied to senior appointees in the Government like RBI Governor, SEBI Chairman, CBI Director, Cabinet Secretary, IB Director, RAW Chief, CVC etc. By an act of Parliament, persons who have accumulated funds abroad should be barred from holding any public office and getting loans from banks etc. as a form of punishment.
f) India must join global efforts against tax havens and secret banking. Recently there was a Task force meeting of the Financial Integrity & Economic Development— in Bergen Norway on 28-29 September, 2010. Our Finance ministry representatives also attended the conclave but remained a passive participant. The Task Force, a consortium of more than 60 governments, NGOs and foundations, is focused on the need for greater transparency in the global financial system for the benefit of both developing countries and industrialized nations. Governments participating in the Task Force include Norway, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Chile, Canada and the Paris-based Secretariat of the 59 government members of the Leading Group on Innovative Financing for Development. Global Financial Integrity leads the Task Force. We are currently full member of the FATF [Financial Action Task Force] that gives us more elbow room from being an observer than in the past. The FATF provides opening to us for taking up national interest financial issues at global fora as also the type of actions we could initiate at the domestic front. India should play a lead role in all these initiative.

We are living in extra ordinary times – with possibilities ahead both of great opportunities and historic blunders. As a nation, we owe it to the deprived and ordinary people of India and future citizens of India the sacred duty of unearthing these vast national resources which has the potential to transform the country into a developed nation much sooner than we can otherwise. India is not only a country, but, also a great civilization, which has from time immemorial propagated non conflicting ideas and practiced non-conflicting methods. As a rising nation, we need to set proper standards for ourselves so that we become the alternative model for the world of conflict in search of peace and harmony. Being viewed as a corrupt and dishonest nation, and being seen as a nation of buccaneers who bolt away with billions of Dollars when a vast population of our country is living in abject poverty will hardly give us the moral and ethical authority to be of example to the world. The time is propitious and we need to act displaying highest degree of national will to get our looted money back.

(The author is Director, Vivekananda International Foundation)

Remote Control Rebels

Remote Control Rebels
Why China’s meddling in the Northeast should worry Delhi

Outlook Magazine | Feb 07, 2011

Ajit Doval

Nations accustomed to making episodic responses to high-profile security events run the risk of missing out subterranean trends and realities. Wang Qing, a Chinese woman spy masquerading as a television reporter, was recently arrested and deported after she visited the headquarters of the NSCN(IM), a Naga rebel group, in Hebron, some 30 km from Dimapur. But the news attracted little attention. The authorities say she admitted to being a spy for the People’s Security Bureau, a Chinese intelligence agency. She had had a four-hour-long closed-door session with T. Muivah, a rebel leader who is holding talks with the Indian government. The rebel group, however, would have the Indian government go by what its spokesperson Phunthing Shimrang says—that “the general secretary (Muivah) has made it clear we are holding talks here and have no relations with China”.
Of late, the security discourse pertaining to the Northeast has been marked by good news: peace engagement with the rebels, improved cooperation from Bangladesh, dissent within insurgent groups and so on. But, in a region that has a 5,215-km international border as opposed to just one per cent of that with the Indian mainland, the external factor, though pivotal, is often glossed over. China, with which India has an uneasy security relationship, shares a border of nearly 1,561 km with the northeastern states. It has a dubious record of meddling with insurgent groups there. There was a lull since the mid-’80s, but there is increasing evidence of China reviving its covert offensive in the region. Chinese support to rebel groups has waxed and waned in accordance with the content and direction of our bilateral relations, their evaluation of the strength and grit of New Delhi, the viability of insurgent groups.
Naga rebels were the first to establish transborder contacts, in the early ’60s. The 1962 Indo-China war only catalysed the process. Facilitated by Pakistani intelligence in Dacca, Kughato Sukhai, the self-styled Naga prime minister, wrote to Chinese leaders on May 29, 1963, alleging persecution and oppression by India. He exhorted China to “honour and follow their principle of safeguarding and upholding the cause of any suppressed nation of Mongolian stock”. In November 1966, China welcomed a 300-strong contingent of Naga rebels led by Thinusilie and Muivah. Trained, and laden with huge quantities of arms and equipment, the contingent returned in January 1968 and established a huge camp in the Jotsoma jungles. When Indian forces attacked it in June that year, they recovered Chinese weapons and incriminating documents.
These initial interactions of northeastern insurgent groups with China gradually expanded. Soon, it came to patronise, train and arm Mizo, Meitei, Kuki and Assamese insurgents. Procurement of weapons from China’s Yunnan province, their transportation into India across Myanmar or via the sea route, arrangements for money transactions, liaison with Thai insurgents—all this got institutionalised over the years.
Recent developments, though coming after a long lull, indicate a major policy shift on part of China, one that should give India cause for worry. In October 2007, on the invitation of the Chinese authorities, Anthony Shimray, in charge of the NSCN(IM)’s foreign affairs, visited China and met Lee Wuen, head of the intelligence unit of Yunnan province (of which the deported spy was an operative) and other officials in Dehong Mangshi, near Kunming. He handed over to the Chinese a letter from Muivah, self-styled “prime minister” of NSCN(IM), naming Kholose Swu Sumi, a Sema Naga from Zunheboto, their “permanent representative” in China. The Chinese welcomed this and wanted Kholose to keep them updated on the movements of the Indian army, particularly in Arunachal, the activities of the Dalai Lama and Tibetans and on the NSCN(IM)’s peace talks with the Indian government. In April 2009, it was the turn of Isak Chisi Swu, the NSCN(IM) president involved in talks with New Delhi, to visit China.
Paresh Baruah of ULFA, too, visited China in 2010. Reports say he led a group of 80 cadres which received training and weapons in Yunnan province. This is significant, for the Maoists are known to be sourcing weapons from ULFA.
China’s renewed interest in insurgencies in the northeastern states cannot be wished away, coming as it does in the backdrop of its increasing aggressiveness, military activities in border areas, claims on Arunachal Pradesh and the links of the Maoists with insurgents in the Northeast. Engaging the rebels in talks will alone not suffice. New Delhi must display greater clarity of vision. Mistaking talks with insurgent groups as an end rather than a means to an end will push us into a self-made strategic trap.
(The writer, ex-director of the Intelligence Bureau, now heads the Vivekandanda International Foundation, Delhi.)

Internal Security – Need for Course Correction

Sent to Dr. Shiv Shakti Bakshi on 3 Feb. 2011 for publishing in Magazine ‘Kamal Sandesh’
3 Feb. 2011
Internal Security – Need for Course Correction
Ajit Doval, KC
(Director, Vivekananda International Foundation)

India is on a surge; a great destiny awaits it. If there is one single factor that could negate or retard it, it will be its failure to govern itself. Ensuring safety and security of its people, upholding the rule of law, managing change with order and ensuring legitimacy of power by those who wield it shall be critical components of that governance. Should it fail to happen, history will once again lament India couldn’t do what it could.
In post war period, internal security has become primary source of degradation, destabilization and retardation of the states as against external aggression. More than 80% of the states during this period faced state failure, disintegration, break down of their political or constitutional systems consequented by internal conflicts and violence. The causative factors leading to internal security dysfunction ranged from political turmoils, sectarian violence, economic deprivation or social breakdowns. Significantly, while the internal fault lines provided the basic munition, the external factor often catalyzed the process to make it decisively unmanageable. Failure to address the external factor in internal security management made the states to lose their capacity to control the avalanche that initially appeared as a trickle. In the evolving security setting, the conventional law and order approach is increasingly proving to be grossly inadequate to meet the new generation Internal Security threats.
Management of Internal Security – New Realities:
India, in architecting its internal security doctrines, systems and policy needs to factor in the following:
(a) Wars are increasingly proving to be cost ineffective instruments of achieving strategic and political objectives. With the emergence of Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW), a fight against an invisible enemy, hidden within the civil society, the consequences of wars can be highly unpredictable with no assured guarantee of success to the stronger. Defeat of Soviet Union by religious irregulars in Afghanistan, American experiencing in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistani army losing out to Shanti Bahini in Bangladesh etc. are illustrative of the limits of military power against Fourth Generation Warfare.
(b) Civil society has become the battle grounds whose control is sought both by the violent anti state groups and the state. It has given rise to the doctrine of proxy war. Hostile states, to bleed their adversaries, are increasingly patronising armed groups operating in their enemy countries. It has opened a new window of opportunity to weaker powers to take on their more powerful adversaries in what we call as asymmetric warfare. In these, weaker states can bleed their more powerful adversaries through Covert Action (CA) at a low cost, in a sustained manner and claim deniability.
In the Indian context, Pakistan that harbours compulsive hostility against India but lacks the capability to achieve its political and strategic objectives, militarily or otherwise, has made CA as an instrument of its state policy. Pakistan has leveraged its geographical proximity, radical Islam, India’s soft governance, nuclear blackmail, military alliances etc. as tools to capitalize over India’s internal security vulnerabilities.
(c) Phenomenal up-gradation in capabilities, resources, international linkages and support bass of violent groups is another disturbing phenomenon. Countering them requires security infrastructure much beyond and complex than required for maintaining peace and order in civil society and enforcing the rule of law. With the emergence of large well armed and organized armed groups the states are facing erosion in their monopoly over coercive power. With the sophisticated weapons systems, modern communication equipments, huge financial resources, access to modern technology and support of rogue states, activities of these groups have placed internal security in a different orbit altogether.
In the Indian context, the Islamic terrorist groups not only are patronized and supported by Pakistan but maintain close nexus with gun runners, drug traffickers, organized crimes, hawala racketeers, currency counterfeiters etc.
(d) Diminishing efficacy of conventional response policies and systems and inability of states to keep pace with them is another infirmity. The conventional response, particularly in liberal democracies, treats acts of violence (no matter how gruesome) as normal crimes, punishable through due process of law, and not as acts of war. This jurisprudence is heavily weighed in favour of the wrong doer and is practically inoperable against those who operate from foreign lands. Instruments of state, its laws, police, judicial systems and even militaries, find themselves grossly inadequate to prevent, protect and penalize the wrong doers.
Besides above, in India, soft governance, political factor and corruption have further eaten into the vitals of state power. Political factor has started casting its ominous shadow, both over enactment of right laws and their enforcement with full political will. The withdrawal of Prevention of Terrorist Activities Act (POTA), Centre’s reluctance to approve Special Acts against organized crimes in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh etc. are illustrative of politicization of internal security management.
(e) Role of non state actors like the Media, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), think tanks, etc., have also added to complexity of the situation. Publicity is the oxygen of terrorism and media inadvertently plays in their hands by giving them undue coverage. As perception management is an important aspect of internal security management, ability of these groups to influence the public opinion, without any corresponding responsibility, only confounds the problem.

India: Slow to Transform
India is not unique in experiencing this paradigm shift. What singles it out is the fact that having paid the highest price in battling against terrorism, insurgencies etc. in terms of over 90,000 human lives lost and nearly 14,000 security personnel killed and huge drain on its scare financial resources; it has been the slowest, if at all, to change. Globally, the response has been swift and decisive while in India it has been delayed, half hearted and often lacking political will. The systems, doctrines, methodology, laws, empowerment and enablement of security apparatus have by and large remained unchanged. Within 48 hours of September 11 (9/11) strike, the US took the policy decision to revamp the whole system and bring in the huge new infrastructure, concepts and laws to create Department of Home Land Security and institution of Director National Intelligence. President Bush announced that “It values individual freedom but should it get in conflict with supreme national interest, the latter will prevail”. Instead of systematic improvements we merely resorted to quantitative response hoping that enhanced force level without change in training, systems, equipment etc would be sufficient to counter terrorism and fight insurgencies.
The expenditure on state police forces and central para military forces cumulatively have increased in last few years from Rs. 15,092 crores nearly to Rs. 26,000 crores, depicting an increase over 70%. In terrorist and insurgency affected areas 22% troops are tied on duties to protect themselves and other 45% on protecting the VIPs and vital installations. With 11% force personnel on leave and training reserves and 5% engaged on administrative duties; what is really left to mount field operations is less than 20%. For want of powerful laws, enhanced operational level intelligence, bold political decisions, lack of new strategic and tactical ideas, we have got entrapped in conventional stereotype of numerical response to internal security. The dogma of ‘time-tested methods’ has become a doctrine to resist change.
India’s internal security landscape in recent decades has undergone a paradigm shift. The conventional pattern of civil disorders, communal disturbances, social and economic turmoil, political conflicts etc. have seized to be the nation’s primary internal security concerns. They have been substituted by externally sponsored covert offensives by hostile powers targeting country’s internal fault lines to achieve their strategic objectives. While country’s democratic polity, economic growth, and social transformations are steadily bringing down conventional threats, except probably the Left Wing Extremism, the external factor has been an important catalytic factor in promoting terrorism, insurgencies, espionage, subversion, cyber space violations, currency counterfeiting, Hawala transactions, demographic invasion etc. India considering its Comprehensive National Power (CNP), has failed is politically and diplomatically leverage it to its best security advantage.

Jehadi Terrorism:- Kashmir and Beyond
Pakistan which, during the Afghan war through Western assistance, had acquired formidable covert capabilities, re-positioned the elaborate infrastructure to bleed and destabilize India through terrorism. It wanted to replicate Afghan model in Kashmir, hoping to make it a theatre of Jehad for all the Muslims and force India to a settlement acceptable to Pakistan. Though it failed to achieve this objective, over the years Jehadis have became integral part of Pakistan’s war-machine and a low cost instrument in its hands to bleed India. Pakistani researcher Sabina Ahmad in her report to International Crisis Group (ICG) calculated 11,500 Pakistani nationals having been killed in India in terrorist operations from 1990 to 2005. This is indicative of the scale and intensity of Pakistan sponsored Jehadi terrorism.
Growth of Jehadi forces, perceiving India as its target, both in India’s western and eastern neighbourhoods, is a serious security and ideological threat given India’s large indigenous Muslim population. While sizeable population of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh has come under its spate, desperate attempts are being made to spread its tentacles within India. Superimposition of this exported variant of Islam constitutes a high potential long term threat for India and will have to be countered – ideologically, politically and physically.
Besides J&K, hundreds of Muslim youth drawn from other parts of the country have been trained and motivated for subversive activities in Pakistan. A large number of Pakistani youth trained by the ISI and disguised as Indians have been positioned as part of an intricately networked covert apparatus. Mushrooming of Madrassas and Islamic institutions in large numbers propagating an ideology of hate and exclusiveness, particularly in the border areas, is another disturbing trend. An imaginative policy initiative and counter measures would have to be taken to meet this threat.
The 26/11 terrorist action at Mumbai depicted a new order of lethality in Pakistan’s unabated covert offensive against India. For almost three decades, India has passively accepted such provocations. It has failed to retaliate in a proactive manner that could raise costs for Pakistan and compel it to roll back its anti-India terrorist infrastructure. India ceded the strategic and tactical initiative to Pakistan some three decades ago and needs a course correction before it poses an existentialist threat. India’s tolerance threshold should not be unrealistically raised in the backdrop of nuclear blackmail as Pakistan has its own vulnerabilities many times higher than India and in its strategic calculus it cannot ignore the threat that India can pose should the conflict grow beyond a point. India also needs to revisit its no first use nuclear doctrine.

Left Wing Extremism:
Left Wing Extremism has emerged as country’s most serious internal security challenge. After its cyclic rise and fall, it assumed serious proportions after 2004 when PWG and MCC, along with other splinter groups, merged together to form the CPI (Maoists). The spatial growth of the LWE thereafter has been meteoric and alarming. Maoists for furtherance of their political objective of seizing power through gun have exploited alienations caused by issues like denial of social and economic justice to deprived sections of society, large scale displacement of tribal populations by major hydro-electric projects and extensive mining in tribal areas. This has led to their influence rising from 53 Districts in 9 states in 2001, to nearly 203 Districts in 18 states by 2010. Among these the core of insurgency is focused in Chattisgarh (Abujmar Region) and Jharkhand with significant activity levels in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa. The movement has been substantially militarised with 16,000 armed cadres, some 15,000 assorted weapons (including 900 AK-47 Rifles, 200 Light Machine Guns and locally fabricated Rocket Launchers), over 85 camps where they are able to impart training in tactics and field craft and strong financial back up to pay regular salaries to members of its so called ‘People’s Liberation Army’.
The Left Wing Extremism embodies many features that make the problem intractable. A large inaccessible and scantily governed terrain that is difficult to dominate or sanitize no matter what force levels are pumped is one major problem. Further, to their advantage, the Maoists have a large alienated population that has suffered decades of social and economic neglect and are easily susceptible to motivated propaganda of the Maoists who promise to establish an order that will deliver justice, freedom from exploitation, jobs and protection of their way of life. A corrupt and callous governance further makes the people an easy prey to Maoist propaganda. They are able exploit all local grievances and conflicts to gather support by promising different things to different people. It may range from exploiting caste conflicts in Bihar, resentment against land lords in Andhra, sentiment against forest laws and practices in tribal areas, unemployment among youth or Islamic sentiment among sections of Muslims telling them all that Maoism provided solutions to all their woes. Availability of large sums money to pay regular salaries; to their cadres in areas where there are large bodies of uneducated and unskilled who are not only unemployed but for most jobs unemployable.
However, they have some high vulnerabilities as well. Illustratively, like the most ideology driven movements, Left Wing Extremism is controlled by less than a dozen top kingpins and nearly 30 commanders of its armed cadre. They determine the political line, control the resources and design the strategy. The bulk of 16,000 odd armed cadres and many times more supporters are only gullible tribals and poor people misled by vicious propaganda, frightened by the gun or lured by the money. For the leaders, who live in conditions of safety and comfort, they are easily replaceable commodities. Neutralization of top leaders and activists in four decade long history of Left Extremism has invariably led to ideological dilution, dissensions, and demoralization giving a blow to their image of invincibility and surfacing of doubts about viability of the movement to achieve its goals through violence. At tactical level, it has led to struggle for leadership, disruption in sources of funding and abandonment of plans in the offing. Further, the questioning of top leaders has often provided strategic and tactical inputs which, when pursued imaginatively, substantially weakened the movement.
Devoid of its ideological plank the movement stands reduced to a problem of organized crime. A credible, focused and sustained psy-war offensive to expose the movement as anti-people will be hard for them to bear.
Money factor is another important element that is empowering the Left Wing Extremism to raise new cadres, procure weapons and expand their arc of influence. A freshly recruited youth is being paid rupees 2,000 to 2,500 per month, which in a poverty stricken area attracts many youth. It is estimated that the left wing extremist are able to collect nearly rupees 1200 crore a year, which is a huge money resource in tribal and backward areas. Maoists raise these funds through extortions, collections from corrupt government officials, protection money, levies on rich landlords, businessmen, contractors, transporters etc. Paradoxically, increase in government outlays for development activities in affected areas has strengthened them financially as enhanced outlays are not backed up by effective and accountable administrative machinery. Their dependency on funds is a vulnerability and it is possible to take series of steps to minimize if not totally eliminate it though strong administrative and legal actions against the fund providers.

North East security discourse, of late, has been marked by good news of peace engagement with the rebels, improved security cooperation from Bangladesh, dissensions within insurgent groups etc. However, external factor in a region that has 5,215 kms contiguous international border with other countries and only about over 1% with the Indian main land though pivotal is being glossed over. External factor has and will continue to remain a vital factor in our management of North Eastern security.
China, with which India has uneasy security relationship, shares a border of nearly 1,561 kms with NE states. It also has a dubious track record of meddling with local insurgent groups till mid eighties. After a long lull, there is increasing evidence of China reviving its Covert offensive in the North East. Chinese support to the rebel groups has waxed and waned depending on content and direction of bilateral relationship, their evaluation of the strength and grit of people in power in Delhi, viability and reliability of insurgent groups etc. It is also noteworthy that whenever assistance from erstwhile East Pakistan, and later Bangladesh, to NE insurgents became difficult, the Chinese stepped in to fill in the gap.
There are definite indications that, after a long lull, there is major policy shift in China. In October, 2007, on the invitation of Chinese authorities, Anthony Shimray in-charge foreign affairs of NSCN(IM), visited China and held meetings with Lee Wuen, head of intelligence of Yunnan province and Chang local intelligence head at Dehong Mansi near Kunming in China. Shimray, handed over a letter to the Chinese authorities signed by Muivah, self styled Prime Minister of NSCN(IM), holding peace talks with government of India. The letter informed Chinese of appointment of Kholose, a Sema Naga, as their permanent representative in China. Chinese welcomed this institutionalized arrangement and wanted Nagas to keep them informed about (i) Activities and movements of Indian Army, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh, (ii) Intelligence regarding activities of Dalai Lama and Tibetans in India and (iii) Progress of peace talks with India. Chinese also tasked them to keep track of other NE insurgent groups and progress of their peace parleys with India. One of the major responsibilities of Kholose was procurement of weapons from China.
In April 2009, the self styled President of NSCN(IM), Isak Chissi Swu, leader of group talking to India, accompanied by Shimray visited China for which the Visa was arranged by the Chinese intelligence in Philippines. They held a high level meeting with one General Lee and three senior Chinese intelligence officers. The Chinese while assuring them of Military cooperation, again reiterated their earlier requirement regarding information abut army movements in Arunachal, activities of Dalai Lama etc. NSCN(IM) leadership subsequently initiated follow up actions in Delhi, Dharmshala, Arunachal Pradesh and NSCN(IM) headquarters to meet Chinese intelligence requirements. Steps in the meantime also commenced to ship 1000 weapons from South Chinese port of Beihei to Cox’s Bazaar in Bangladesh for the NSCN (IM).
Paresh Baruah of ULFA after being pressurized by Bangladesh security agencies, also visited China in 2010. Reports indicate that he led a group of about 80 that after receiving training in Ruili in Yunnan was provided substantial quantities of weapons. It is significant that ULFA has been a source of procurement of weapons by Left Wing Extremists and possibility of some of the Chimes weapons reaching them through ULFA channels can not be ruled out.
Reality of Chinese renewed interest in NE insurgency can not be wished away in our security calculus. It assumes special import in the back drop of China’s emerging aggressiveness, military activities in border areas, claims on Arunachal Pradesh and linkages of Left Extremists with NE insurgent groups. The government in pursuing its policy of engaging the rebels in peace talks needs to display greater clarity of vision, well defined objectives and strategic precision. Mistaking the talks as an end rather than means to an end can push India into a self made strategic trap. While the rebel groups are enhancing their capabilities, establishing trans-border linkages, procuring new weapons and recruiting new cadres, the government appears to be calculating publicity mileage and possible electoral advantages as their sole gains. This can be a self defeating strategy.

Illegal Immigration:
The size geographical location and porosity of our borders makes large illegal migration to India from neighboring countries possible. People of all neighbouring countries share at least one important ethnic, religious or linguistic commonality with a section of the Indian population, which makes it possible for them to find easy shelters and go undetected. Economic opportunities afforded by relatively higher economic growth, freedoms of a liberal democratic polity, corruption, shortcomings of Indian political, administrative and judicial systems etc. have all contributed to make illegal immigration a major internal security problem.
Demographic invasion from Bangladesh, has already assumed alarming proportions. In many of the bordering districts of Assam and West Bengal it has brought about a total demographic transformation, forcing the original inhabitants to sell their lands and flee. Instead of abating, the last two years have witnessed an unprecedented increase in the inflow – the new migrants becoming more abrasive and emboldened, considering their illegal migration almost a matter of right. Subdued though, voices in support of greater Bangladesh have started surfacing both in Assam and Bangladesh.
The illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, who well exceed 2.5 million now, are no more confined to bordering states of Assam, West Bengal, Meghalaya etc. but have found new habitations in depth areas of the country. Most of them have been able to acquire identity documents with local political patronage and connivance of corrupt officials. The local Muslims in some areas are facilitating their settlements and helping them in procurement of ration cards, identity documents, jobs and political patronage.
This large scale migration is no more only a cause of demographic change, social conflicts, denial of economic opportunities and civic amenities to our own poor people but has become a security concern. The Islamic terrorists from Bangladesh readily find local shelters in length and breadth of the country. These immigrants also bring with them deeply ingrained anti-Indian ideas and seeds of fundamentalism. The border is porous and the infiltrators get full support from Bangladesh Border Forces. This unending stream of migrants is likely to become much more pronounced in the times to come, given the push factor in Bangladesh and the pull factor on the Indian side.
Illegal migration from Pakistan and Afghanistan is relatively small but its security implications are much greater. Pakistan as part of a long-term covert action programme, is trying to establish modules in different parts of the country with well trained and highly motivated Pak residents masquerading as Indians. A large number of Pakistanis who enter India with regular visas frequently go under ground and become untraceable.
Unemployment in Youth:
Though, essentially an economic and not a security issue if left unattended large scale youth unemployment can have serious security implications. India currently has a population of nearly 1.2 bn, 62.9% of which is in working age group. By 2026, India’s population profile is likely to grow even younger (68.4%in working age group) and the total population at 1.4 bn will overtake that of China. This translates into one billion people in the working age group that will need to be gainfully employed. Any failure will make large sections of unemployed youth vulnerable to forces of destabilization, disruption and destruction – both indigenous and foreign inspired. Channelised constructively, they can catapult India into a new power orbit making its human resource capital in the ageing world as a non-competeable CNP component for many decades ahead.
The total sum of jobs presently in India’s Public and private sector (including those in the unorganized private sector) work out to barely 300-350 million. India’s economic liberalization, so far is only producing the miracle of jobless growth. Most Indian industries have been imitating the Western corporate model – downsizing the workforce to maximize the profits. The Jamshedpur Steel plant of the Tatas that employed 80,000 workers some three decades ago with a production of 1 million tons per annum halved it to just 40,000 in the 1990’s and the output rose to 5 million tons per annum by automation. The plan is to further reduce the work force to just 20,000 but raise the production to 10 million tons per years. While to achieve global competitiveness India cannot afford to produce at high costs, it at the same cannot afford to keep its millions out of a job. A paradigm shift in over growth strategy is required and heavy investments need to be done in areas that can create large employment opportunities; nearly 700 million jobs by 2026. Man power intensive industries like ship building, infrastructure projects, rural employment schemes etc. will have to be accorded high priority. Generation of new and upgradation of existing skills through massive vocational training programmes need to be launched substituting the conventional educational pattern that churns out youth who are educated but unemployable. One of the ironies of Indian employment market is that while there are large numbers of youth with 10 to 16 years of formal education, most of the industries and employers find it difficult to get appropriate manpower that hardly requires training of two years or less beyond two years beyond basic 10 to 12 years of schooling. Non inclusive growth, large scale unemployment, huge income disparities etc. can be potential causes of internal instability and degradation. In national economic planning the strategico- security factors need to be given its deserved importance.

“How Deep Are the Roots of Indian Civilization -An Archeological & Historical Perspective?”

Sent to Ms. Neera Misra on May 16, 2011 for publishing

Address by Shri Ajit Doval to seminar on
“How Deep Are the Roots of Indian Civilization -An Archeological & Historical Perspective?”
at Vivekananda International Foundation on Nov.25-27, 2010

Esteemed Prof. B.B. Lal, Shri K.N. Dixit, Ms. Neera Mishra, dignitaries on the Dias, Distinguished Scholars, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is indeed a great pleasure for me to welcome you all to the Vivekananda International Foundation.

It is most heartening for the Foundation to have such a galaxy of eminent scholars from India and abroad congregating here to deliberate on issues which are of great vital importance – both academic and empirical. Its import transcend from scholars like you to the common man like me, from present to the coming generations and from cradle of this ancient Indic civilization to human heritage of which we are a part. Though seized of its importance, let me confess that when it comes to history and archaeology I am no authentic voice on the subject and least qualified to address this august gathering. Nevertheless, I bring with me the perspective of a common man – least informed as a civilizational inheritor the primacy stake holder.

I earnestly believe that the only way to handle the future is to understand the past- its achievements, failures, thought processes and events that influenced the course of history. But all this is possible only if we knew the history right - the right facts, the right cause and effect relationships and the right interpretation of events, devoid of bias and subjectivity. ‘Learning lessons from history’ may will be a worthless cliché if history that we are made to read and imbibe if it is distorted, motivated or based on selective half truths. Half truths are more vicious than ignorance as people often find themselves sticking to the wrong half.

One is often dismayed by controversies surrounding restructuring of history curriculums in India, England or other parts of the world, revisiting standards of National History in the USA, disputes over the contents of history textbooks in Japan, China, Korea, Pakistan, Israel, Germany etc. Why the invasion of Latin American countries by the Europeans, the development of new curricula in the successor states of the former USSR or rewriting of history textbooks in Russia following collapse of the former USSR have generated raucous voices among the scholars, thought leaders and political elite alike. It’s because, across the board, there is a realization that the way the past is seen and projected is going to have a bearing on the future. It has a relevance for the nations and societies not only in the contemporary context but more so for their progenies. Unfortunately, India appears to be oblivious to this realization and, at times, some scholars pride themselves in reinforcing motivated stereotypes without striving to find truth and counter what I may call psy-war through distorted history.

There is a popularly held view that antiquity lends respectability and sense of continuity to human societies. The contrarian view that grandeur of the past neither provides panacea to problems of the present nor is a guarantier of better future tomorrow is advanced by utilitarian thinkers with equal vehemence. Both these viewpoints have some arguable justifications but suffer from the infirmity of evaluating contribution of history from scholar’s point of view and not the common man and the civil society. History provides people a mindset through which they consciously or otherwise navigate themselves, individually and collectively, in seeking answers of who they are, why they are, what they are and where will they be should the history repeat itself. In answers to these questions lay the whole spectrum of collective and individual experience of the past on one hand and their choices of the future on the other. The triumphs and tragedies of societies, failures and successes of governments, political ideas, religious beliefs and practices, art and architecture, cultural practices and rituals, educational systems, customs and traditions etc. are few among the endless list of domains – that influence and get influenced by the historic process. This connection between the past and present has been aptly brought out by noted historian E.H. Carr who in his book What is History asserts that: “The past is intelligible to us only in the light of the present; and we can fully understand the present only in the light of the past.” He further adds that history is needed to increase his mastery over the society of the past and to increase his mastery over the society of the present.

Historical and civilizational issues are not exclusive preserves of scholars and historians as it has equal relevance and utility for the common man and civil societies. The human societies - the way they think, resolve or sublimate their conflicts, interact with other societies, their faith systems and beliefs all are largely conditioned in the incubator of history – whether conscious by or otherwise. Even when one is not a part of the intellectual exercise one compulsively remains part of civilisational and cultural process – their DNA imprints are indelible?

For me the idea of importance of history and heritage comes from yet another vantage point. Often I wonder if the historical and civilizational issues were not all that relevant why some people in a systemic and painstaking manner take all the trouble to distort it. The importance of history and its linkage to a society and also the causes why people resort to distortions has been best summed up by historian, Arthur Marwick, who says: “Individuals, communities, societies could scarcely exist if all knowledge of the past is wiped out. As memory is to the individual, so history is to the community or the society. Without memory, individuals find great difficulty in relating to others, in finding their bearings, in taking intelligent decisions–– they lose their sense of identity. A society without history would be in a similar condition. A society without knowledge of its past would be like an individual without memory. It is only through a sense of history that communities establish their identity, orientate themselves, understand their relationship to the past and to other communities and societies. Without history (Knowledge of the past), we, and our communities, would be utterly adrift on an endless and featureless sea of time.”

I hardly need to explain or to elaborate the above quotation. Historical distortions are resorted to by the interested parties because they know that distortions are necessary to achieve something to sub-serve their interests of today and agenda of tomorrow. They deliberate with diligence to conjure up contrived images of the past and make them appear as real – particularly in the minds of those whose history stands mutilated. It allows manipulation of the minds of those who are wronged in a manner that suits vested interests of the intellectual manipulators. Their self view of who they are, their ethos, identities, values, beliefs, failures and achievements renders vulnerable to manipulation by others.

It is also important to flag that the way people define their identity, existence, world view and creation stories, and how they value, interpret, manage and transmit their past differ from society to society. The method of recoding and interpreting the past also differs. No set of subjective yard sticks and a judgmental approach to evaluate other societies- could be justifiable. Can a s huge treasure of civilizational and cultured wealth declared as untrustworthy and worthless just because it does not conform to some set of arbitrary parameters set up by alien cultures and civilizations. Can few victories in the wars or temporary political controls be justifiable reasons to condemn the wealth of human heritage as non-existent?

I am greatly delighted that VIF is organizing this three day international seminar on “How Deep Are the Roots of Indian Civilization - An Archeological & Historical Perspective?” Indeed it will be a matter of great privilege to hear the discourses from eminent scholars and others participants. In terms of time and space we shall be talking about the continuity of people living in this geographical region and how deep their historical and civilizational roots are?

I would like to thank Neera Misra ji and her Draupadi Trust for their untiring efforts, Ministry of Culture, Government of India for their support, and Archaeological Survey of India for their deep involvement in this effort. I do hope that as suggested by Dr. Lal, Archeological Survey of India will undertake an intensive five year research project to explore new findings along the course of forgotten river Saraswati. Thanks are also due to my colleagues here in Vivekananda International Foundation, especially my colleague Mr. Mukul Kanitkar, for making various logistic arrangements. My special thanks also to Prof. B.B. Lal whose presence here provides us a great motivation and sense of purpose.

Last but not the least I thank all the participants, from India and abroad, who have taken all the trouble to come here from distant parts of the world and submitted valuable papers for discussions during the seminar.

West outsourcing Afghanistan to Pak


West outsourcing Afghanistan to Pak
Source: Deccan Herald, 10 March 2010,
Author: Ajit Doval

Retired director of Intelligence Bureau, Ajit Kumar Doval, has spent several years in the vexed North East and Jammu and Kashmir, besides the conflict zones of Pakistan...
He was the main negotiator when the then NDA government reached a settlement with terrorists at Kandahar, Afghanistan, to set free passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines plane in 1999. Excerpts of an interview with B S Arun for Sunday Spotlight:

Does the latest terror attack in Kabul, apparently aimed at Indian nationals, warrant India’s pull-out from Afghanistan and stoppage of aid.

Pull-out is a security-related construct normally in the context of military presence or existence of military linked facilities. India has none of these in Afghanistan. What exists is a normal nation to nation civilian cooperation under which India has been extending to Afghanistan economic and humanitarian assistance. Except during the Taliban rule – a regime that was not recognised by India, India consistently maintained friendly relations with different governments that existed there. Following the Taliban rule, Afghanistan was in need of support and assistance to rebuild its degraded economy and social infrastructure. India, realising that socio-economic uplift was necessary for stability, security and development that would enable a democratic government to subdue the extremist forces, responded.

Just because the Indian Embassy in Kabul has been attacked twice, we won’t be ending our diplomatic presence there. It holds true for our other activities as well. Security threats have to be met by providing enhanced security cover and not abandonment or appeasement. Of course, the security element has also to be factored in.

Is Indian intervention in Afghanistan a means of curbing Pak terrorism within India? Will the attacks vitiate Indo-Pak peace talks?

Af-Pak region as an epicenter of jihadi terrorism is a matter of global concern. For India, it assumes very special import as India has been its victim for nearly two decades. Pakistan which has integrated use of covert action as a low cost instrument of state policy against India, its asymmetric adversary, has been maintaining a collaborative relationship with many terrorist groups, particularly those targeting India. In Afghanistan, Pakistan wants to exercise its control by leveraging terrorist groups like that of Jalaluddin Haqqani, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Hafiz Gulbahadur etc., that are amenable to it by branding them as soft Talibans. It is these so-called soft Talibans that have been used by Pakistan to target Indian interests. Problem for India is compounded when ideological, infrastructural and operational linkages start developing between these two sets of terrorist groups on account of Pak intelligence operating as common centre of command, control, motivation and infrastructural support. As proximity of these groups with Pak establishment have not only been reported by Afghan authorities but widely commented internationally, any incident of terror perpetrated by them are bound to cast their shadow on Indo-Pak talks. Pakistan government cannot expect India to pursue a peace initiative in the face of continued hostile activities against India in India.

Is India biting off more than it can chew when it has failed to curb the LeT in India? Is Let behind the attacks in Afghanistan?

I think India is not being as hard as it should be, both in dealing with Pakistan and handling terrorism within. The pressure built against Lashkar-e-Toiba following 26/11, which at one time was being trumpted as a major diplomatic victory, has proved to be short-lived. LeT linkages in Afghanistan with pro-Pak terrorist groups are known.

Pakistan is opposed to India’s role in Afghanistan and reiterated it at the recent London conference.

Pakistan is quite disturbed by the goodwill that has developed for India in Afghanistan, that it considers to be an area of its strategic depth. Since 2001, Indian has offered $1.2 billion for Afghan reconstruction making it the biggest donor in the region. Its successful completion of Zaranj-Delaram Highway in Afghanistan near the Iranian border and the progress on Chahbahar port in Iran that eventually may be linked to Afghanistan through road is seen adversely by Pakistan. It will reduce Afghanistan’s total dependency on Pakistan, which desires to give Afghanistan, a land-locked country, access to the outside world only through it.

Pakistan has been assiduously trying to keep India out of Afghanistan and has been black-mailing the Western powers that any foot hold given to India would adversely affect their capability to take on the jihadi elements in the disturbed Af-Pak region. It is unfortunate that India could not use its political clout and diplomatic skills first during Istanbul meeting and later during the London conference to assert that India was an important stakeholder and developments there had a bearing on its security interests. The current developments in the backdrop of Obama’s declaration to pull-out from Afghanistan and the policy of ‘strategic calibration’ implies West largely out-sourcing management of Afghanistan to Pakistan. It may hurt India’s security interests.

How do you view US pull-out of Afghanistan? What will be its implications to the region and to India?

I feel the US pulling out of Afghanistan is premature as they have not yet achieved the objective for which they came there. In recent years not only the situation in Afghanistan has become highly volatile but now the menace of jihadi terrorism has engulfed large areas in Pakistan. If the past experience is any indicator, Pakistan cannot be trusted in carrying forward the battle against terrorism that will serve the regional or global interests. It would try to manipulate the situation to maximise its own gains. Further, it will extract a formidable price not only in terms of economic aid but also military hardware and funds for augmenting its military capability on the pretext of fighting terrorism. These enhanced capabilities will pose direct threat to India. As is evidenced by Pak Army chief Gen A P Kayani’s assertion in February last, just before India offered peace talks, that India was “our natural and long term enemy”.

This new offensive needs new response

This new offensive needs new response
Ajit Doval,

Aug 8, 2010, Times of India

The situation in Kashmir is grave but quick-fix solutions can make it worse. A government is in crisis when it doesn't know what to do (crisis of ideas and decision making) or is unable to do what it wants to (crisis of action and capacities). In Kashmir, the government is facing both. The Army chief was right when he recently said that opportunities were squandered by the local government when militancy was low.

We need a proper strategic plan. The NDA government's 1998 Kashmir plan has neither been updated nor replaced. The current crisis is being blamed on political mismanagement, insensitive governance, faulty assessment of ground realities and low capacity to deal with mobs. But, there is more. Such a widespread, well coordinated and determined action with precision timing and uniform action can not be spontaneous. It is part of Pakistan's covert subversive offensive.It assumes importance as Pakistan, unable to achieve its objectives through military means or terrorist actions, now embarks on a new course.

Beginning 2008, Pakistan has been targeting civil society and exploiting the local people's grievances to cause disaffection and instability in the Valley. The offensive is designed to degrade India's legitimate claim over Kashmir. With international disapproval, domestic compulsions and decreasing support for militancy in Kashmir, terrorism is increasingly becoming unaffordable. The new offensive is premised on the assumption that emotive consolidation of Kashmiris can be better achieved with slogans exploiting local grievances than a larger political agenda. Once it assumes a critical mass, demands can be raised for MLAs to resign, government servants to boycott offices and the right for self-determination.

The movement has become so big because different sets of local interest groups are directly or indirectly supporting it for different reasons, becoming unwitting pawns in somebody else's grand strategy. For the opposition, the agitation means the fall of Omar Abdullah's government and fresh elections. For the separatists, it signifies an opportunity to denounce India's claim of enjoying the people's support and press for a political settlement acceptable to them (read Pakistan). And then, there are common people who are incensed by certain actions of the security forces. Pakistan is using its agent-provocateurs to bring all these groups together and using terrorists in disguise to raise the ante of violence. Pakistan is trying to convince the West that the de-radicalization of Pakistan and its people's support against terrorism is not possible without providing them comfort on the Kashmir issue.

We will be falling into the enemy trap if we try to tackle the subversive offensive with tools used to combat terrorism. Winning the trust of a civil society is a different ball game. The present phase of violence may abate after a while but the task of tackling civil society should not be forgotten. It may return with vengeance because Pakistan will continue to upgrade its tactics and the international setting may change to our disadvantage after the US starts to drawdown its troops from Afghanistan in July 2011.

Ajit Doval is former director of the Intelligence Bureau

Read more: This new offensive needs new response - The Times of India

Complicated encounters

Complicated encounters
Ajit Kumar Doval

Posted online: Wed Aug 04 2010,

Indian Express

Beware of half truths — because you may be holding the wrong half. After having seen and read so much about the Sohrabuddin episode in the last five years, one might believe one knows it all. Sohrabuddin is now cast as an innocent victim of police excess.
However, it would be worthwhile to explore the real facts about Sohrabuddin, the nature of police encounters, and the real issues at stake. Sohrabuddin was an underworld gangster who was involved in nearly two dozen serious criminal offences in states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. He maintained transnational links with anti-India forces from the early ‘90s onwards, until his death in 2005. Working with mafia dons like Dawood Ibrahim and Abdul Latif, he procured weapons and explosives from Pakistan and supplied them to various terrorist and anti-national groups (had it not been for his activity, at least some terrorist acts could have been averted). Sohrabuddin was solidly entrenched in the criminal world for a decade-and-a-half. Around the time he was killed, the Rajasthan government had announced a reward on his head. In 1999, he had been detained under the National Security Act by the Madhya Pradesh government.
In a 1994 case investigated by the Ahmedabad crime branch, he was co-accused along with Dawood Ibrahim and convicted for five years, for waging war against the Government of India, planning an attack on the Jagannath rath yatra in Orissa, and other offences under the IPC, Arms Act, etc. During the investigation, 24 AK-56 rifles, 27 hand grenades, 5250 cartridges, 81 magazines and more were seized from his family home in Madhya Pradesh. In 2004, a fourth crime was registered against him by Chandgad police station of Kolhapur district in Maharashtra under sections 302, 120 (b), and 25 (1) (3) of the Arms Act, for the killing of Gopal Tukaram Badivadekar. As fear of him often silenced people from reporting his whereabouts, let alone deposing against him, the Rajasthan government had to announce a reward on his head after he killed Hamid Lata in broad daylight in the heart of Udaipur, on December 31, 2004. So much for Sohrabuddin’s innocence.
However, irrespective of who Sohrabuddin was and what he did, the use of unaccountable force against him is indefensible is the public view of many (often at variance with their private view). There are many who feel that there is a higher rationale for such actions in compelling circumstances, as the law of the land has repeatedly found itself helpless in dealing with individuals bent on bleeding the country. Their argument, that the rule of law is a means to an end and not an end in itself, often finds support in the jurisprudential principles of salus populi est suprema lex (the people’s welfare is the supreme law) and salus res publica est suprema lex (the safety of the nation is supreme law). Even the Supreme Court of India, in the case of D.K. Basu vs. State of West Bengal [1997 (1) SCC 416] accepted the validity of these two principles and characterised them as “not only important and relevant, but lying at the heart of the doctrine that welfare of an individual must yield to that of the community.” The validity of the principles of salus populi est suprema lex and salus res publica est suprema lex could have been part of an enlightened national discourse, and what could be the governing instrumentalities, empowerments, legal checks and stringent processes if these principles were to be invoked. It is better to accept reality as it is and then strive to change it for the better, rather than what we wish it to be. Feigned ignorance is the worst type of hypocrisy.
But there is another vital question that needs to be addressed. While pursuing the Sohrabuddin case, was the government really serious about stopping the menace of fake encounters, or was it pursuing a different agenda? Encounters have been taking place all over the country under all regimes, at times degenerating into what are called fake encounters. Between 2000 and 2007 there have been 712 cases of police encounters in the country with UP topping the list at 324, and Gujarat figuring almost at the bottom with 17.
In some of the cases there was not much on record, even to establish the criminal past of those killed. Settling political scores through security and investigative agencies like the CBI is not only bad politics, but also destructive for the nation’s security. To convey the impression (explicitly or implicitly) that Sohrabuddin was targeted for belonging to a particular community, thereby creating a sense of insecurity in a section of society, is detrimental to national interests. It is little known that a large number of Sohrabuddin’s victims were Muslims while a good number of his closest associates (including Tulsiram Prajapati, who was also killed in a similar encounter), were Hindu. William Blake could not have been more right when he said that “a truth that is pursued with bad intent beats all the lies you can invent”.
The other negative impact of the Sohrabuddin case is the impression it is creating that all encounters in which police and security forces are involved, are fake. Society needs to be reassured that the majority of encounters are genuine and mostly in response to murderous attacks on security personnel. The fact that, on average, over 1,200 policemen get killed every year grappling with terrorists, insurgents, underworld mafia and other anti-social elements, bears ample testimony to this fact. Playing up a few aberrations and blowing them out of proportion and presenting them as the only truth is not in the national interest.
The other downside of the publicity around such cases is that it erodes the people’s trust in governance. Administrations begin to be seen as instruments of repression and self-aggrandisement and politicians as perceived as manipulating their power for political and personal gains. This erosion can lead to a dangerous delegitimisation of the polity. Democratic politics is an exercise in regime-legitimisation, and to lose the confidence of the governed would set the government on a self-destructive path.
The writer is former director of the Intelligence Bureau

'Time to stay a step ahead of terrorists'

'Time to stay a step ahead of terrorists'
Last updated on: October 23, 2009 16:15 IST

The November 26 terrorist attacks in Mumbai [ Images ] last year revealed the chinks in India's security setup. From poor intelligence to lack of preparedness, a lot was spoken on how to prevent another carnage of this magnitude.

Ajit Kumar Doval, former director of the Intelligence Bureau , discusses with's Vicky Nanjappa the intelligence scenario post 26/11. Doval says it is 'ridiculous' that the Mumbai police is still in denial about a local link in the deadly attacks.
Do you think that the capabilities of the Intelligence Bureau have changed in the aftermath of 26/11?
Capabilities of the intelligence agencies do not change overnight. The IB is constantly upgrading its skills and capabilities -- both operational and analytical -- to meet new challenges. Structural changes are also being brought about when required.
Our adversaries are changing and multiplying at a very fast rate. However, the changes that the agency makes do not necessarily and proportionately reduce threat levels. In fact, there is a marked improvement in its functioning. But both the direction and speed of the change calls for an orbital shift.
Could you please explain the concept of 'change'?
The construct of change in India is reformative in nature. When there is a failure and mistakes are detected, reforms are brought about to ensure that those mistakes are not repeated. However, I feel that the changes in the framework of reformation, though necessary, are inadequate.
Take the Mumbai attacks for instance in which five-star hotels were attacked. The change in security systems and drills in hotels across the country may make the hotels secure but do not reduce the overall terrorist threat. A terrorist outfit may not necessarily carry out an attack on hotels again. There is a need to change so as to cope with the changing capabilities and intentions of terrorists. There is a need for a forward-looking approach.
If we assess that a terrorist organisation will strike with weapons of mass destruction, then there is a need to gear up for that too. They may even think of hitting at defence and nuclear installations. Terror groups keep improvising and modifying their field craft to surprise the adversary. And, when they fail to do so -- they get surprised and are neutralised.
They keep changing their targets, their modus operandi and may even use people from another country to carry out a terror strike. The construct of change should be transformative. Change your techniques, technology and tradecraft fast and on unpredictable lines -- not necessarily linked to the last failure.
Time-tested methods have no place in the game of intelligence -- the trick lies in ever inventing something new and something least expected. Be innovative enough to remain a step ahead of them. And that requires ability to think like a terrorist and changing innovatively and imaginatively.
There was a lot spoken about the local angle in the Mumbai attack. However, the Mumbai police refuses to acknowledge this. What is your opinion?
For millenniums we did not know the existence of uranium in nature. That did not mean that there was no uranium. An operation of the scale of 26/11 could not have been carried out by semi-literate foreign terrorists in an alien setting with so much of precision, sense of time direction and space without local support.

Just because the Mumbai police was not lucky or smart enough to find something about this that does not mean that the local angle was non-existent.
Let us analyse all major, or even minor, incidents of terrorism perpetrated by the foreigners in the past and see how many were there without local support.
Do you think that there is still scope to probe the local angle?
I think the battle ends only when we win. The effort should continue; and I think there is still scope for this.
Do you think Pakistan is under any pressure to act against terrorism? Do you think that they have acted on it?
As far as India is concerned, Pakistan is not under any real pressure. Over the years, Pakistan has developed immunity to international condemnation. It is not bothered about the sullying of its image. The tangible pressure is only for taking surgical actions against the groups or individuals, who potentially can hit Western interests or targets. I don't think that there is any pressure on them to shut down India specific terror camps, prevent infiltration, take action against the gun runners, currency counterfeiters or India linked radical organisations.
Although I do feel that there is a desire on the part of the Western countries to make Pakistan and Afghanistan terror-free states. India, unfortunately, does not figure high in the pecking order.
What about the Lashkar-e-Tayiba [ Images ]? Do you think that they have disintegrated after the Mumbai attack?
Not at all! The LeT has not been subjected to any degradation though it has been tactically advised to lie low following international pressure. Their infrastructure, sources of funding, catchments for new recruitment and religious schools under Markaz-Dawa-ul-Irshad to produce jihadis, production of jihadi literature, sources for procurement of weapons, etc. are very much intact.
What about outfits like the Students Islamic Movement of India and the Indian Mujahideen [ Images ]? They are relatively quiet as of now. Does this mean they are finished?
The SIMI [ Images ] and IM are very much present; they have not vanished. Maybe as a group they may not be as well organised and active as before. However, there are individuals who still maintain their trans-national linkages and can be exploited by forces inimical to India
There has been a rise in incidents involving Hindu organisations. What do you have say about this?
I do not think there is any serious possibility of any Hindu organisations taking to violence in a big way. However, any such trend must be countered and curbed.